Its now more than half a year since Wall Street’s Cassandras warned of an imminent unavoidable recession. It still isn’t here and yet now there are signs of growing global strength, experts say.
“Signs outside of economic data suggest the economy may be doing better than headlines indicate,” states Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial. “One of those signs comes from copper, which is widely considered to be a leading indicator for global economic growth, given its extensive use across many sectors.”
He’s not wrong. The price of copper has been on a multi month rally since late September when a pound of the red metal fetched $3.30. It’s since rallied to highs around $4.27 in January, and now rests at $3.95, according to TradingEconomics.
That rally is in large part due to the unlocking of China’s economy following the economically disastrous Zero COVID policies of China’s premier Xi. The mandated lockdowns across multiple cities meant many Chinese people simply could not go to work. The economy suffered as a result. In the second quarter it grew a pathetic 0.4%, the worst performance since the pandemic in 2022.
However, now that policy has been abandoned, the communist country can get back to work. And for China that means large scale manufacturing and construction.
And of course central to both sectors is copper. It is used in the manufacture of automobiles, defense materiel, electronics and other items, as well as in the electrical wiring of residential and commercial buildings.
Much of what Chian produces gets exported, which suggests that the surge in copper prices likely comes as the result of increased demand for the metal to manufacture goods for keen buyers, likely in the U.S. and Western Europe.
All this activity suggests that the global manufacturing sector is likely on a growth trajectory.
Sooner or later this should start filtering through to better profits and higher stock prices.